Orangevale Real Estate
Critical data elements for the current month and each of its occurrence for 10 years earlier. The averages are shown to help describe how the current market deviates from average for these data items.
The Median Price means half of Sold prices were lower and half were higher. This eliminates the effect of outliers. The Momentum and the 12-month moving average help predict future changes.
The EMA is a moving average that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. Like all moving averages, this technical indicator is used to produce buy and sell signals based on crossovers and divergences from the historical average. Traders often use several different EMA lengths, such as 10-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. These calculations use the frequency of source data – monthly, therefore 12 month EMA. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ema.asp
Showing the Median Price and its Momentum (Þ) together makes it easier to explain how crossing the X axis “warns” the investor that the momentum is triggering a possible action. Because Momentum is not perfect, there is a time lag and, therefore, lost opportunity to either gain more or lose less from the actual peak/trough to the crossing of the X axis.
The real estate market was created to exchange “products”: money and houses. When a house is made available to prospective buyers, there is a response to that “Product”. That response can be shown by the current and historic data and the trends and shapes of those lines. An ACTIVE listing is briefly also NEW. When a seller and buyer enter escrow, the “Product” becomes PENDING. If that buyer and seller execute the contract, the “Product” becomes SOLD. The life of all “Products” (MLS only) can be seen in these charts and blurbs.
Consumption is a simple calculation of demand and supply. Listings go from Active (New), to Pending, to Sold. From Pending back to Active means escrow failure. Supply is Active listings which grows by New listings and Demand is the depletion of supply by Pending and Sold listings.
The data for New and Pending listings render this calculation called “appetite” for new residential listings for the month. If New and Pending are equal, it represents an eager demand. If New is less than Pending, supply will vanish if it continues.
Active and Sold listings render this calculation called “turnover” of residential listings for the month. If Active and Sold are equal, it represents an eager demand. If Active is less than Sold, supply will vanish if it continues.