Carmichael Real Estate

Listings | 1-Story Listings
Carmichael consists of only 1 zip code and lies just beyond the city limits, toward Fair Oaks.
https://www.unitedstateszipcodes.org/95608/

▓ Zip Codes Charted ▓

Fair Oaks – Folsom – Roseville – Orangevale – Carmichael – Citrus Heights – Rocklin – Rancho Cordova

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Overview – Major – Financing – Averages – Momentum – Counties – Zip Codes

Critical data elements for the current month and each of its occurrence for 10 years earlier. The averages are shown to help describe how the current market deviates from average for these data items. (The current year is not included in averages.)
Carmichael 95608 History

The proprietary “Lean Score©” is composed of each tracked zip code (52), attempts to portray the market health, is not tracked to show trends, and uses Short Term and Long Term averages for each data element. Like a balance sheet, it shows a point in time.

Charted are 11 data elements: New listings, Active listings, Pended listings, Sold listings, Canceled listings, Months of Inventory (MoI), Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM), Median price, Median price momentum (Þ), Appetite (PEND/NEW) and Turnover (SOLD/ACTIVE).

The ‘short term’ average (10 year) and the ‘long term’ average (~25 year) are tracked for each data element.

The variance between the current value of each data element and its ‘short’ and ‘long’ averages are calculated.

A positive “Lean” value (leans toward Seller) and negative value (leans toward Buyer) for a data item will be interpreted in different ways for each data element.

Inventory of houses most certainly grows and does not recede over time. I’ve known a house to decay and become uninhabitable but never dead.

When the Lean score for

  1. New listings leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means the number of current New listings is low and not adding competition to a Seller’s population of buyers thereby giving Sellers more leverage.
    • Buyers (negative), it means the number of current New listings is high and growing the selection and competition in the market for homes, giving buyers more leverage.
  2. Active listings leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means the number of Active listings is low and not providing competition to a Seller’s population of buyers.
    • Buyers (negative), it means the number of Active listings is high and provides the selection and competitive market that gives buyers leverage.
  3. Pended listings leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means the number of Pended listings is high and removing competition from a Seller’s population of buyers giving sellers more leverage.
    • Buyers (negative), it means the number of Pended listings is low and giving sellers possible motivation to reduce prices, thereby giving buyers more leverage.
  4. Sold listings leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means the number of Sold listings is high, reducing competition and making it much more probable that Sellers product will soon sell, giving Seller more leverage.
    • Buyers (negative), it means the number of Sold listings is low, maintaining pressure on sellers to reduce prices.
  5. Canceled listings leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means the number of canceled listings is low and chance of a sale is high, giving more hope to sellers.
    • Buyers (negative), it means canceled listings are high making seller psychology suffer from more anxiety.
  6. Months of Inventory (MoI) leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means low, good for Sellers
    • Buyers (negative), it means high, good for Buyers
  7. Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM) leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means low, good for Sellers
    • Buyers (negative), it means high, good for Buyers
  8. Median price leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means high, good for Sellers
    • Buyers (negative), it means low, good for Buyers
  9. Median price momentum (Þ) leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means high, good for Sellers
    • Buyers (negative), it means low, good for Buyers
  10. Appetite leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means high appetite for New listings, favoring sellers
    • Buyers (negative), it means low appetite, favoring buyers
  11. Turnover leans toward
    • Sellers (positive), it means high turnover, favoring sellers
    • Buyers (negative), it means turnover is low, favoring buyers
Rumble
Carmichael Lean Score©
The ‘Median’ Price means half of Sold prices were lower and half were higher. The other popular measurement is the ‘Average’ Price. Using the ‘Median’ eliminates the effect of outliers on a meaningful measurement. The Momentum and the 12-month moving average (12MM), both based on the Median Price, help predict future changes and indicates possible investment actions. Momentum detects changes in the rate of change from month to month and therefore moves before the Price change is evident. The monthly Price change pulls and pushes on the Moving Average of the Price. For highly variable prices (e.g., Loomis 95650), Momentum and the MA of the Price is more difficult to translate.
The 12 Month Moving Average is a ‘trailing indicator’ of the Price that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. Like all moving averages, this technical indicator is used to produce buy and sell signals based on its relation to the Price changes it is measuring. Traders often use several different EMA lengths, such as 10-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. Investment analysis usually uses data with a 1-day occurrence. Real estate data, although happening daily, is reported monthly. Therefore, these calculations use the frequency of source data – monthly, therefore 12 month MA. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ema.asp
Showing the Median Price and its Momentum (Þ) together makes it easier to explain how crossing the X axis “warns” the investor that the momentum is triggering a possible action. Because Momentum is not perfect, there is a time lag and, therefore, lost opportunity to either gain more or lose less from the actual peak/trough to the crossing of the X axis. https://www.investopedia.com/trading/introduction-to-momentum-trading/
Carmichael 95608 Median Price & Momentum

The real estate market was created to exchange “products”: money and houses. When a house is made available to prospective buyers, there is a response to that “Product”. That response can be shown by the current and historic data and the trends and shapes of those lines. An ACTIVE listing is briefly also NEW. When a seller and buyer enter escrow, the “Product” becomes PENDING. If that buyer and seller execute the contract, the “Product” becomes SOLD. The life of all “Products” (MLS only) can be seen in these charts and blurbs.

Pending over New listings render the calculation called “appetite” for new residential listings for the month. If New and Pending are equal, it represents an eager demand. If New is less than Pending, supply will vanish if it continues.

Sold over Active listings render the calculation called “turnover” of residential listings for the month. If Active and Sold are equal, it represents an eager demand. If Active is less than Sold, supply will vanish if it continues.

Cancellation of a listing (or Expiration) doesn’t mean it doesn’t come back.

Carmichael 95608 Inventory
Carmichael 95608 New Listings Pubished in MLS
Carmichael 95608 New Listings (Annual)
Carmichael 95608 Pending Listings
Carmichael 95608 Pended Listings (Annual)
Carmichael 95608 Canceled Listings
Carmichael 95608 Canceled Listings (Annual)
Carmichael 95608 Sold Listings
Carmichael 95608 Sold Listings (Annual)
Carmichael 95608 Active Listings
Carmichael 95608 Active Listings (Annual)

Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM) represents the number of days a listing spends ACTIVE until SOLD. The number of days PENDING are excluded from the CDOM number.

Carmichael 95608 CDOM
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