Sacramento Metro Real Estate
Major Forces
Intro
There are many elements (“forces“) that drive the supply (attempt to sell) and the demand (attempt to buy) homes. When a home is newly constructed, there are additional forces. Common to either type of single-family residence (SFR), mortgage rates, buyer and seller confidence, new home permits, and employment exert extreme forces on the supply and demand for homes.
Summary
This shows the monthly and yearly changes for Major Forces data which is published on different timelines.
Oct 2022 – Major Forces
Oct 2022 – Major Forces
- Mortgage Rate (30yr fixed) = 7.29%, UP 7.4% MoM and UP 137.5% YoY.
- Consumer Confidence = 102.5, DOWN 4.9% MoM and DOWN 8.2% YoY.
- Consumer Sentiment = 59.8, UP 2.0% MoM and DOWN 16.6% YoY.
- Housing Market Index = 38, DOWN 17.4% MoM and DOWN 52.5% YoY.
- (Sep 2022) New Home Permits = 634, DOWN 5.7% MoM and UP 1.0% YoY.
- (Sep 2022) Employment = 1,051.0K, DOWN 0.0% MoM and UP 4.3% YoY.
- (Sep 2022) Private Employment = 806.3K, DOWN 0.3% MoM and UP 5.8% YoY and was 76.7% of total employment.
- (Sep 2022) Gov Employment = 244.8K, UP 1.9% MoM and UP 4.9% YoY.
Mortgage Rate
This National mortgage rate data is collected each month from ‘mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/charts.asp’, specifically the Freddie Mac 30yr fixed rate. Low rates trigger demand which, in turn, triggers supply. Buyers who do too much rate shopping 1) won’t improve it much and 2) may affect their success.
Consumer Confidence
This National ‘Conference Board’ data is collected each month from ‘investing.com/economic-calendar/cb-consumer-confidence-48’. High confidence helps demand and supply. Changes in National confidence is, naturally, caused by National forces. Our market may be slightly different, but it’s hard to fight the psychology of humans.
New Home Permits
This Sac Metro permit data is collected each month (but a month behind) from ‘census.gov/construction/bps/msamonthly.html’. Builders buy dirt and add value on it. Buyers can choose a New home or Resale. The supply created by builders isn’t always timed well.
Region Employment
This Sac Metro data is collected each month (a month behind) from ‘data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate’. PRIVATE unemployment is not good for the market. Government unemployment is not as bad because to pay for government, the government has to take private money. A well-run and efficient government could represent as little as 10-15% of total employment; just guessing. A balance of these would be nice. It’s also a taboo subject ESPECIALLY in Sacramento, the seat of California’s government.
Housing Market Survey
The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is a weighted average of three separate component indices and is described fully here: https://www.nahb.org/News-and-Economics/Housing-Economics/Indices/Housing-Market-Index
