When life gives ME lemons, I try to understand the pattern to 1) why, 2) how, and 3) where I get them. The patterns INSIDE a lemon are always the same – never identical and obviously natural.

The data I collect and analyze consists of MLS reported data for listing statuses, the number of days they were marketed before they entered contract, and the resulting prices after the contract is executed (and becomes public information). The data happens in patterns. You have probably heard of the “seasonal” nature of real estate – that’s a pattern. And the best time to put your house on the market, if you have a choice, is when the buyers are flocking in the highest numbers; Spring and Summer – this is a specific application of knowledge (= “wisdom”). And as we notice these patterns, we propagate them by telling everyone who asks [even if they don’t ask].

Yes, my telling you something can create a mass belief in that something that begets that something which makes me correct [and really smart]. It’s called Social Proof and really it only proves you trust someone’s opinion. But, to be sure, you need to see the data and understand the patterns before you believe what someone tells you [even if someone is me].

Charts are graphical depictions of data. Showing time-based data items together helps highlight correlations and patterns. They also expose how markets are heading. Historically, patterns are more obvious in a chart (canvas) and they can give us knowledge of the future, ceteris parabis. But all things (ceteris) don’t remain the same (parabis). And what I noticed is an “interrupted” pattern.

Month-over-Month “gain” is only meaningful to a seller. And in the years 2014-2018, the pattern reflected that Spring and Summer months saw the highest MoM changes in prices. Something happened in 2019 or, rather, something was organically going to happen in 2019 that got interrupted.