Sacramento Metro Real Estate
Metro Counties
Intro
Using raw and monthly MLS data from 3 Counties (Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer) for New, Active, Pended, and Sold listings, the average Cumulative Days on Market, and the average Median Price. The data for the Composite Average is for the 52 zip codes, not these 3 Counties.
From this “raw data”, my calculations result in the momentum of each Median Price, the ’10 Yr Mmm Average’ for each data item, ‘Supply’ (New+Active), ‘Demand’ (Pend+Sold), ‘Lean Score’ (long and short-term averages indexed for each data item), ‘Consumption’ (Demand/Supply), ‘Appetite’ (Pend/New), and ‘Turnover’ (Sold/Active).
Geography
The 3 Sac Metro Counties are tangent to each other and represent different demand and supply levels.
Summaries
Supply and Demand render Median Price which has a momentum.
Sacramento County Snapshot
Jun 2022 – Sacramento County
- The number of [New] listings was 1771 this month, which is 0% LOWER than the previous month and -10% LOWER than last year and is at 91% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring SELLERS.
- The number of [Active] listings was 1890 this month, which is 39% HIGHER than the previous month and 92% HIGHER than last year and is at 87% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring SELLERS.
- The number of [Pended] listings was 1142 this month, which is -11% LOWER than the previous month and -29% LOWER than last year and is at 79% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring SELLERS.
- The number of [Sold] listings was 1153 this month, which is -2% LOWER than the previous month and -30% LOWER than last year and is at 79% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring BUYERS.
- Appetite for listings was 64% this month; last month Appetite was 72%; last year Appetite was 82%
- Turnover of listings was 61% this month; last month Turnover was 86%; last year Turnover was 168%
- Consumption of listings was 63% this month; last month Consumption was 79%; last year Consumption was 111%
El Dorado County Snapshot
Jun 2022 – El Dorado County
- The number of [New] listings was 306 this month, which is -18% LOWER than the previous month and -21% LOWER than last year and is at 83% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring SELLERS.
- The number of [Active] listings was 520 this month, which is 20% HIGHER than the previous month and 87% HIGHER than last year and is at 74% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring SELLERS.
- The number of [Pended] listings was 198 this month, which is -22% LOWER than the previous month and -37% LOWER than last year and is at 79% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring SELLERS.
- The number of [Sold] listings was 208 this month, which is -18% LOWER than the previous month and -39% LOWER than last year and is at 85% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring BUYERS.
- Appetite for listings was 65% this month; last month Appetite was 67%; last year Appetite was 82%
- Turnover of listings was 40% this month; last month Turnover was 58%; last year Turnover was 123%
- Consumption of listings was 49% this month; last month Consumption was 62%; last year Consumption was 99%
Placer County Snapshot
Jun 2022 – Placer County
- The number of [New] listings was 687 this month, which is -10% LOWER than the previous month and -8% LOWER than last year and is at 96% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring SELLERS.
- The number of [Active] listings was 904 this month, which is 33% HIGHER than the previous month and 128% HIGHER than last year and is at 92% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring SELLERS.
- The number of [Pended] listings was 461 this month, which is -13% LOWER than the previous month and -27% LOWER than last year and is at 86% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring SELLERS.
- The number of [Sold] listings was 474 this month, which is -3% LOWER than the previous month and -29% LOWER than last year and is at 84% of its [10yr Jun Avg], favoring BUYERS.
- Appetite for listings was 67% this month; last month Appetite was 70%; last year Appetite was 84%
- Turnover of listings was 52% this month; last month Turnover was 72%; last year Turnover was 169%
- Consumption of listings was 59% this month; last month Consumption was 71%; last year Consumption was 114%
History
Critical data elements for the current month and each of its occurrence for 10 years earlier. The averages are shown to help describe how the current market deviates from average for these data items. (The current year is not included in averages.)
Median Price
The Median Price means half of Sold prices were lower and half were higher. This eliminates the effect of outliers. The Momentum and the 12-month moving average help predict future changes. Time and research proves that NO zip code or area is immune from market swings. The average median price shows the same shape as the individual zip code price charts. Some areas have higher swings and higher prices. The Average smooths out the anomalies and outliers.
12 mo EMA
The EMA is a moving average that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points.
Like all moving averages, this technical indicator is used to produce buy and sell signals based on crossovers and divergences from the historical average.
Traders often use several different EMA lengths, such as 10-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. These calculations use the frequency of source data – monthly, therefore 12 month EMA.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ema.asp
Momentum
Showing the Median Price and its Momentum together makes it easier to explain how crossing the X axis “warns” the investor that the momentum is triggering a possible action. Because Momentum is not perfect, there is a time lag and, therefore, lost opportunity to either gain more or lose less from the actual peak/trough to the crossing of the X axis.
Inventory
The real estate market was created to exchange “products”: money and houses. When a house is made available to prospective buyers, there is a response to that “Product”. That response can be shown by the current and historic data and the trends and shapes of those lines. An ACTIVE listing is briefly also NEW. When a seller and buyer enter escrow, the “Product” becomes PENDING. If that buyer and seller execute the contract, the “Product” becomes SOLD. The life of all “Products” (MLS only) can be seen in these charts and blurbs.
Momentum
Commodity brokers put a heavy reliance on momentum for the underlying price change of the commodity they’re trading. It’s a year-over-year calculation depicting the direction and force of the price change. Maximizing your profits as a home seller requires the exclusive use of TIME to trigger your selling decision. Combining the Median Price momenta from each County and the Average Median Price momentum (zip codes comprise Averages), aggregate market changes are more apparent.
Momentum Gain
Hindsight and math are beautiful when you prove you were right AND made a profit from being right. Using math and a commodity approach to buying LOW and selling HIGH, momentum would profit as shown with the math here. Maximizing your profits as a home seller requires the exclusive use of TIME to trigger your selling decision. Momentum Gain is the paper (or realized) gain if momentum triggered all sell and buy actions. This gain would require perfect response to triggers and no “push” to sell other than the momentum triggers.
Appetite
The data for New and Pending listings render this calculation called “appetite” for new residential listings for the month.
Turnover
The data for Active and Sold listings render this calculation called “turnover” of residential listings for the month.
Consumption
Consumption is a simple calculation of demand and supply. Listings go from Active (New), to Pending, to Sold. From Pending back to Active means escrow failure. Supply is Active listings which grows by New listings and Demand is the depletion of supply by Pending and Sold listings.
CDOM
Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM) represents the number of days a listing spends ACTIVE until SOLD. The number of days PENDING are excluded from the CDOM number.
Distressed
When home owners become under-paid, unemployed, and over-burdened, houses can be foreclosed or be sold “short”. This chart shows the volume of “distressed” sales in our 3 counties. A foreclosure frequently becomes an REO (Real Estate Owned) and to avoid foreclosure, sellers can sometimes be allowed by their lender to sell “short” of the loan balance.
Peaks
In the month, these zip codes had changes resulting in a new high or a possible swing to a lower direction.
These are the zip codes that hit new Median Price highs in the month.
These are the zip codes where the Moving Average (EMA) exceeds the Median Price. This is a sign of decreasing prices.
