Demand is Disappearing, Supply is Not
Preliminary October 2022 data as of 10/23/22 — 6 of 21 (29%) work days left in October (only on work days can a listing become SOLD). PENDED listings are not shown since they cannot be easily associated with this month; it could easily be last month’s data or they could once have been Pending and now Active again.
Every County and almost every zip code is showing drastic year-over-year increases in SUPPLY and drastic decreases in DEMAND (I think 95661 has some “under-reporting”). Mathematically, that difference (Turnover = SOLD/ACTIVE) pushes prices down until SUPPLY and DEMAND are in “equilibrium”. This is the classic “whipsaw” situation when SUPPLY is limited for an extended period then DEMAND drops and we have a glut of inventory. This is a known phenomenon in manufacturing. It will return to normal but there are external forces that must allow “free market” to happen again, organically.
Some zip codes, my guess also preliminary, like Lincoln, are already seeing a correction to their whipsaw/glut. But it’s not looking like prices are moving higher anywhere.
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