Through June 2008

Here are June's market data and momentum. I've added the raw data to each chart to give you a better sense of where the data is coming from. My uncharted "pulse" indicator is a combination of all of these charts -- this is a great market. And since inventory has increased a small amount while the number of sales has increased, there are still choices and fewer multiple offer situations. The media is telling us there is a decrease in resales -- that is a national statistic. Real estate is a local commodity and national statistics cannot tell you how our 3 counties are doing.I have a new indicator called the "pulse" indicator. This is my reading on the activity and psychology of the market in this area including a summary of the momentum indicators shown in the charts below. Real estate is a local commodity and national statistics cannot tell you how our 3 counties are doing.

The pulse is currently rated as dark Amber. That means it is Red hot for those who are able to move quickly when a desired home hits the market. But it is only luke-warm (Yellow) for those who haven't been pre-qualified with a lender and are waiting for the bottom.  And for sellers, the pulse is a light Yellow - there are buyers but they know you're competing with banks and short sellers.

Six of my clients are now in escrow.  And you would be smart to let me represent you.  Whether you're looking at an existing home or a newly constructed home, I can get you a great deal and help you throughout the process (and beyond). 

• The Market: The momentum indicators show another increase in resale activity, month-over-month. But inventory increased. However, the inventory increase was not equal to the number of sales so there is now only 4.5 months' inventory (length of time to sell all Active listings), down from 4.8 last month. Remember, my momentum indicators are no guarantee of how a market will change in the coming months but they are healthy in several aspects. The momentum of REO sales (indicator of bank-owned inventory) is still increasing which is indicative of the number of successful offers and the percentage of listings that are bank-owned. Notices of Defaults (indicator of new, possible foreclosures) are decreasing in numbers and, hence, momentum. The number of resales took another sharp leap upward contradicting the media's reports.  County-wide median price decreased a small amount while the dollar value of closed escrows jumped again. Builders in this region are also going against the national "grain" and are building new homes.
• The Media:  The media are focused on rigging the election but have some time to inject their bias on the real estate market.  If "speculation" didn't occur, prices would be erratic and the market would not have smooth corrections and cycles.  I speculate every day.  Don't you?
• Congress:  And speaking of speculators, Congress is losing their bets.  I want to fire them.  They work for us and are doing a horrible job.  As Glenn Beck would say, "it's time for pitchforks".  The housing bill didn't and won't do much for people other than the banks who sold the bad paper (subprime products to subprime borrowers).
• My counsel to Buyers:  Get pre-qualified -- I'm connected to some great lenders.  Call me to get your FREE web site that can provide more detailed search requirements and daily updates to your inbox.  Eliminate listings that work and call me when you have a short-list to view.  And remember my FREE reports (http://JayEmerson.com/Publications.asp) on making this important buying decision.
• My counsel to Sellers:  Price your home at or below the comparable sales.  Stage it well and make it available with little or no waiting.  Low-ball offers are relative - if you price too high, all offers are low-balls.  I have FREE reports (http://JayEmerson.com/Publications.asp) on selling in this buyer's market.
• My counsel to Investors:  Banks are not accepting blind offers but they are accepting reasonable offers.  Do your homework and call me for an edge in getting access to some great deals. I'm here to help you. Call for any of my FREE reports (http://JayEmerson.com/Publications.asp) on investing in real estate.
• Bottom line: Call me to get started.  And I'm never too busy for your referrals!

These proprietary charts depict the momentum of changes in the underlying raw data, not the raw data itself. For an explanation or for a monthly subscription to this periodic report, call or email Jay Emerson (916-517-9606, Jay@JayEmerson.com). The data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Sources include DataQuick, CBIA, Sac MetroList, and public escrow information. 

If you know someone who is selling or buying and who would appreciate my level of service and expertise, send me their name and number and I'll be glad to follow up.